Tuesday, August 15, 2017

If You Can Keep Your Head ...

... when all about you are losing theirs, and blaming it on you ...

Noted liar and exaggerator (President) Donald J. Trump was at it again today.  In an unhinged and ranting press conference at his digs in New York, he (among other oddities) compared Robert E. Lee to George Washington and Thomas Jefferson, proclaiming that we may be tearing down their statues too, someday.  Well now.  One can only assume that we will never be tearing down a statue of Trump.

If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,

 But make allowance for their doubting too.


In other news, Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) reported horrible earnings today.  The stock has lost half its value in a year, and is a perfect example of a great store and horrible investment.  They cited weakness in hunting and outdoor gear as a reason for the disappointing earnings.  OK, then.  If your margins are that thin, I guess that's the reason investors have suffered.  Fortunately for me, I can shop there and nothing else.  That seems like the choice.

The brilliant earnings report from Extreme Networks made its case in the price of the stock today, as it nearly returned to its $11 high.  I hope to retire soon.

If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
 Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies

We have to wait sometimes.  It's the game.  We will get an earnings report from Cisco Systems (CSCO) after the market close on Wednesday.  The stock has been a 3.8% bond for the better part of the last 9 months, as investors wait for that home run that doesn't seem to come.  So far, it's been singles and doubles, and the company has prospects, but we wait for them to be brought up.  Perhaps tomorrow ...
If you can make a heap of all your winnings
 And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,

And lose, and start again at your beginnings
 And never breathe a word about your loss;


I'll breathe a word about my loss in JC Penney.  Horribly, I listened to what I thought was an informed authority and risked it on a turn of pitch-and-toss.  Well, the pitch was a toss, and I wound up selling it two days after buying it for a loss.  What it taught me was to go with my instincts, which are substantial, and not listen to the words of someone who may have ulterior motives. Such is life.

And so hold on when there is nothing in you
 Except the Will which says to them: “Hold on!”

I'm holding on.  Pfizer and DelTaco.  In the case of Pfizer, I'm being paid a 3.9% dividend to wait.  However, the waiting is grating on me, and I wonder how long I can stay ... long.
DelTaco (TACO) is a different story. As faithful readers know, I have touted this company for a while, and have been adding to positions until I now have a significant portion of my investment tied-up in the company.
They keep executing.  Beat and raise, as they say.  They beat estimates and raise the next one, yet the market fails to reward us - and them.  My faith doesn't wain, and if you haven't yet bought in, there is still time.  The stock is mired in the $13 range, and trades at a discount to its peers in the casual dining/restaurant segment, with significant growth opportunities ahead of it.  There is nothing in their earnings reports or forecasts to make me want to sell, and I'll hold it until the market regains confidence in the sector and specifically, the company.  As for me, I have considerable confidence in both.

If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
 If all men count with you, but none too much;



So, OK - don't count on me too much.  Do your homework, and remember - it's only money.

Meanwhile, you might want to look at favorite Limelight Networks (LLNW) and keep an eye on Square (SQ). Square has dropped a little from my purchase at $26, and I fear that I'll have to be patient with them until they get to the $24 range, at which point it should rebound.
Acco Brands (ACCO) is interesting, at 11 times forward earnings.  You use (and steal, probably) lots of their office products.  There's value, and you're always looking for a bargain, right?



If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,

 And — which is more — you’ll be a Man, my son!

So go - be a man, or whatever.  


Monday, August 14, 2017

It's Nice to be Right Once in a While



I'm pretty sure I've mentioned Extreme Networks (EXTR) before.  I've been holding this stock for a while, and wondering why it has been down over the past 3 months.  Sometimes, the market doesn't know what's going on, and investors have to trust their instincts a hold onto stocks that they bought because they believed in the company when they made the purchase.
In the case of EXTR, I fell in love (bad to do, I know) with the company when I figured out what they did and how if worked-into the way companies are doing business today.  It's a growth industry, and as such, one has to endure a certain amount of doubt from the so-called "investors" when something happens that they find a reason to sell.
The stock went from the $11 range down to the $9 range in the relatively short time period of three months, on almost no news - other than the fact that the company was signing-up new businesses and otherwise moving their business forward.  I had to tune-out the noise and trust my instincts - which were rewarded today. To those who sold into earning, I say, "I'll see you in 10 years."
Next up is Cisco Systems (CSCO) who reports on the 16th.  I've held that for a while, waiting for the big news.  My faith will be rewarded, I think.