Thursday, October 11, 2018

Don’t Just Do Something, Stand There.

Sometimes, the best thing to do is nothing.  Such may be the case now.  The markets are in turmoil.  The Federal Reserve is hawkish on rates. The President says they are "crazy."  Bond yields are going up...

At the same time, companies are reporting increasing earnings. Revenues are up, and the tax break has given them billions of dollars with which to buy back their own stock - which is now trading at a low compared to a year ago.

Meanwhile, my favorite company Square (NYSE: SQ) has lost its CFO, and the sellers have bitten into our former $100 share price, taking it down to today’s $69.  But fear not (he said) Jack is still running the show, and they have multiple assets in house that are being run by other great leaders, so if you’re interested, there may be a time to get in over the next few days.  The Wayback Machine has been set to early summer levels.

For the record (if there is one) I have sold nothing, even though the temptation is there.  I invested in these companies because I liked their fundamentals. The only thing that has changed is the market. Nothing about the companies has changed, so if anything, I have reason to buy more, not sell.  That said, I am most interested in Microsoft, AMD, Target, and (still) Del Taco, who seems to be overlooked in the domestic food industry. We’ll see soon enough, as they have earnings coming up at the end of October.

What else?  Oh yeah - the safe haven of commodities.  You should be looking at copper (CPER) silver (SIVR) and an overall commodities ETF that trades under the ticker symbol GCC.  If you are nervous about stocks, several commodities are trading at historical lows, and you could do worse than investing in silver, copper, and raw materials. Dribble money in over the next few months and be prepared to hold on for five years or so.

If you like bonds, go ahead, but as rates rise, your good old cash will start paying in the 3% range, so that’s also a safe haven for you.  For now though, I’d sit tight and see what happens over the next week or so.  The Fed has yet to decide on another rate increase, and we’re at the start of earnings season.  A lot will depend on what the banks (Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Citibank et al) say about the overall outlook and their revenues going forward. Bad news could be a sell signal. Good news could be -- well -- good.

Just don’t be in a hurry to do anything.  It’s bigger than we may realize.

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

The [ROCK AND ROLL] Hall of Fame

Eh -- I don't know -- this whole Hall of Fame thing.  Aren't record sales and concert attendance enough? Do we need awards and enshrinement for artistic accomplishments?

The nominees for the 2019 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame are out, and I of course, have some opinions. Who would I be if I didn't? Opinionless.

The slam-dunks on the list for me are Devo and Kraftwerk. That's right.  Both of them revolutionized a genre and are landmark musicians.  Isn't that what the R&R HoF is about?  (yeah, I don't know, either). I'd also vote for Rage Against the Machine.  There, I said it.

Otherwise, my Honorable Mentions are Todd Rundgren and Stevie Nicks.  I'd guess that Stevie is in as a member of Fleetwood Mac, but her solo career also stands out and I suppose you could apply the "Landmark" label to her, as well.  My biggest kudo to Rundgren is that he co-produced Badfinger's "Stand Up" album, which is epic.  OK, so he also wrote some great songs, but really -- how many of them could you mention or recite the lyrics to? (I'll give you a minute)

.....

OK then, as for the rest of the list of nominees.

The Zombies.  Seriously?  They fall under the category of One-Hit Wonders, not Hall-of-Famers.
Def Leppard.  Feh.  A one-armed drummer is a novelty, and I suppose that could get them in.
LL Cool J.  I thought this was "Rock and Roll?"
MC5.  A dark horse, and a cult band. Hall of Fame worthy?  no. Stop ten people on the street and ask them to tell you what the "MC" stands for.  HINT: It's Motor City.  Yeah, you didn't know either.
Rufus featuring Chaka Khan. Um ... no. If you have to say "featuring" in your band name, there is an issue.
John Prine.  Another cult favorite, and he'll probably get some write-in votes from fans.
Roxy Music.  Just a bit short of "fame-worthy" status.  Other than giving us Brian Eno, they really haven't accomplished enough to be enshrined.
The Cure.  They might get in, with this weak class.  The same way Goose Gossage got into the Baseball Hall of Fame.  But, we'll know.  We'll know.
Radiohead.  Oh boy.  That would be like putting jean shorts into the Clothing Hall of Fame.  We hate them, but we appreciate what they did in their field.
Janet Jackson.  I suppose she'll get in, if for nothing else but revolutionizing the Super Bowl halftime show.  But this is my ballot, and I say she isn't Hall of Fame worthy.

Which begs the question:  What's with the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, if they're going to nominate people like John Prine, Kraftwerk, and Janet Jackson?  Either rename it the Pop Music Hall of Fame, or stop putting musicians in it who aren't rock and roll.  
OK, I get it, it's Cleveland, and that's supposed to be the birthplace of rock and roll - but you have to be real about this.

If they are going to call it the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and nominate bands like Devo and Kraftwerk, then I'm going to support them on both their body of work and their influence on music.  That seems to be the criteria, otherwise, why nominate John Prine?

The whole thing is confusing. Bottom line:  I know what I like, and I don't need a Hall of Fame to validate it. 

Warren Zevon isn't in. Nick Drake isn't in. Kate Bush isn't in.  T-Rex isn't in. There are so many glaring exceptions that I cannot support fringe candidates when there are others who are deserving - mostly posthumously - but deserving nonetheless.
Kristin Hersh.

That said, I still have a problem with awarding art in any form.  Creating art is its own reward, and being enshrined in some "hall" is an ancillary benefit of the gift you have given us.  It seems to me that the award is more about us and our tastes than it is about recognizing you and your art.

So -- maybe this is just pointless?  I already know what I like.

And, so do you.