Sunday, May 3, 2009

Expert textbert.

Experts. They're everywhere. I'm not sure how one gets to be an expert. I think they just materialize somehow. Some people are experts on stuff that nobody else wants to spend the time researching, so we say, "Sure - whatever. Thanks for the help." Like the NFL draft and horse racing. We can't be bothered doing all that research and event viewing, so we leave it up to the experts. Mostly they're wrong, but we don't seem to mind since most of us don't know anything either.
Take yesterday's Kentucky Derby, for instance. Mine That Bird, a 50 to 1 (50.6 to 1 officially) underdog (horse) won the race and not one expert picked the horse to finish in the top 3, let alone win the damned thing. To my way of thinking, if you're really an expert on horse racing and you saw a long shot like this that actually had a chance to win the race (since he did win, I figure he had a chance) you'd have to say to yourself (and us), "Hey, wait a minute - this horse shouldn't be 50 to 1. I'm an expert and I think he (she) has a chance."
I didn't hear that, did you? The Inquirer ran 5 experts' picks in Saturday's paper.
Bob Fortus (New Orleans Times-Picayune) picked Friesan Fire to win, Dunkirk and Desert Party.
David Grening (Daily Racing Form) picked I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Hold Me Back.
Ed McNamara (Newsday) picked Dunkirk, I Want Revenge and Freisan Fire.
Jason Shandler (BloodHorse) picked Friesan Fire, Desert Party and Papa Clem.
Gary West (Fort Worth Star-Telegram) picked Dunkirk, Friesan Fire and Pioneerof the Nile.
Nicely done, men. Friesan Fire finished 18th, I Want Revenge was scratched and Dunkirk finished 11th. Desert Party could have been timed with a calendar and Hold Me Back was held back to 12th. Of their picks, Pioneerof the Nile finished second and Papa Clem was 4th. I didn't see any mention of Musket Man (third) or Mine That Bird.
In his Inquirer story, Mike Jensen said, "Since nothing about this race played to form..." Pardon me Mike, but I would want to believe that experts should have been able to call that.
But, they're horses after all. Betting on an animal in a race against 19 other animals turns out to be a sucker's bet more times than not, and since I'm an expert on being a sucker, I'd advise you to spend your money elsewhere and stop listening to experts in general.

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