Don’t Blame Yourself

I tried.  I really tried.

I did the best I could with what I was given:  A job, lots of bills, and just myself and my wits to depend on.  That’s pretty much the bulk of it.  I put as much money into investments as I could, with the idea that I could have been putting it somewhere else - like, oh I don’t know, prostitutes, drugs, expensive cars, or clothes.
I don’t crave sex, use drugs, drive expensive cars, or wear fancy clothes.  It’s a character flaw, I guess.

The thing I could never figure out is how people who earn the same salary as I can have shore homes or live in a better place than I.  I always figured it’s because they are more comfortable in debt than me.

So, this retirement thing is coming up, and coincidentally the stock market is tanking and the country is at full employment. Great timing.  I have less money than I had a year ago, and it’s going to be harder to find another job.
Yeah, right - I’m going to have to find another job. It’s not like I’m 80 years old with a fortune saved and can afford to put my feet up and watch the world go by ...
...unless I want to, I guess.

Two financial advisors told me that “you’re in good shape,” and I can afford to live off my meager (by my estimation) savings, Social Security, and my shitty pension.  I guess I should believe them, but my financial paranoia makes it difficult for me to believe that I can get by on what I have managed to save over the last 30 years.

I had planned on working another 5 years - so that I could get to the magic age of 65 and then put my feet up and enjoy the last 20-or-so years of my life.  The retirement offer came out of left field and I was put in the unenviable position of deciding that the risk of working another four years was less than the “bird in the hand” of taking what was given to me and leaving with a fistful of money.  Money that I wouldn’t leave with if I kept working.  It’s a long story, but trust me that it’s true. I would fear for my career if I decided to stay.

The worst thing of all of this is that, as timing would have it, the stock market is in what they call “a bear market” and my retirement fund has lost about twenty percent of its value over the last eight weeks - or roughly the time between when I was told about the retirement plan and — now.

So, I am scrambling.  I was planning on having another five years, but instead, I have perhaps six months.  I have moved money into conservative investments.  It pains me to give up investing, but since my financial future depends on it, pumping the brakes is the equivalent of security - so I pump.

Fresh money is going into cash.  Bonds are appealing. I am suddenly risk averse. The safety of dividends, fixed income, and bond yields are suddenly important.

The sad part is that there is no place to hide now. Other than inside my own mind.

Oh, What Now?

That’s a good question.  (I often ask myself questions)

The market is up 2% one day and down 2% another day - but mostly, it’s down.  Way more than 2%. Over the last six months, the S&P 500 is down from 2600 to 2300 - which is a 15% decline.  Most “experts” say that 2019 will be difficult for the stock market, since earnings will be tough to match and “The Fed” and China tensions will weigh on the index, making investors nervous.

If I was 25, I would be as happy as a pig in slop.  Markets are down, and I still have 40 years to invest.  I’d be giving up lifestyle enhancements to invest in this market.  Buy low, sell high and all.

However, I’m a year away from retirement, and my perspective has suddenly changed from someone who has five years left to one who has less than a year left and cannot risk losing his nest egg over a big market downturn.  So ...

If you have more than ten years before you will be tapping your investments, it’s full steam ahead.  Go forward with Square (SQ) and the others I have written about here and appreciate the downturn as a buying opportunity.  However, if you have less time left, consider ...

Bonds.  Geez.

BNDX is a worldwide bond ETF that has a five-star Morningstar rating, pays out 2.22% yield and a skinny 0.11% expense ratio.  That’s pretty cheap for international bond exposure.

BLV is a long-term bond ETR that invests in longer term US Treasuries and pays a 4% yield. It’s on Schwab’s Select List.

AOK is a nice conservative allocation stock/bond mix ETF if you are still transferring from stocks to bonds.

MINT is a short maturity bond fund that has a four-star Morningstar rating and pays a 2.4% yield.

MUB is a public works ETF that invests in municipal bonds in the United States.  If you believe that the national infrastructure initiative will happen, this might be the place to be.  It pays a 2.4% yield and is Federal tax free.

So - there you go.

A New York State of Mind

Is it possible to like something and hate something?  New York City is that kind of place for me.  I anticipate my visits, but generally hate the experience.  Yesterday, I spent about 12 hours there.  I only go if I have to, and yesterday I had to.  I take the train because, if I had to drive, there would be nothing left of me but a greasy spot.  If the train doesn’t stop where I have to go, I can walk.  So far, it hasn’t been worth the taxi fare or Uber fee to keep me from walking - even as far as from Penn Station to Carnagie Hall. This year’s trip was similar.

I bought a matinee ticket to Mike Birbiglia’s show "The New One" in midtown and Marc Maron’s show at the Beacon Theater later that night.  I made it to both shows from the train station on foot, going over 22,000 steps on my Garmin.  Both shows were great.  Two talented monologists and funny to boot. But, that isn’t my point.

I live near Philadelphia, and regularly (and voluntarily) visit, even if it’s just to walk around, have a meal and goof around.  It’s a wonderful city, and I always enjoy my time there.  New York? Well ...

I’m not sure how people perceive me. I don’t know what they see when they look at me. In New York, I’m pretty sure there is RUBE on my forehead that appears under the light of the city, like a black light makes semen appear on bed sheets.  I get approached by every charity, scam artist, and otherwise beggar looking for something that is in my pocket. Others walk by, and they single me out. I have to toughen-up and tell them to leave me alone.  I also need to stop carrying cash when I go there, so I can have a valid reason for telling them to "piss off."  It’s a work in progress.

Toward the end of my twelfth hour in the city, I had begun to adopt this attitude, and I figure that it would take a couple of weeks for me to refine it to the point that I was like other New Yorkers.  I’m not sure that’s a good thing, but it’s a necessary defense mechanism for being there.  I’ll remember that the next time I go.

Pedestrians are bold.  I watch traffic lights and those red or white hands that say "Walk"or "Don’t Walk" because my attitude is, "Please don’t hit me."  New Yorkers attitude is, "Hit me, bitch!"  I can’t work that way.  They just walk, regardless of traffic or the color of the light, and it’s an amazing study in human behavior that the drivers do not have the same attitude as the pedestrians.  I suppose it’s because the drivers have more to lose? They stop, and I guess the pedestrians know it - and they just walk.

Getting around is easy, though. The streets are all numbered by Avenue and Street, so if something is at 49th Street and 6th Avenue, and you’re going to 53rd Street and 8th Avenue, you automatically know that it’s four blocks up and two blocks over.  There is almost too much going on.  It’s all jammed-into the Borough of Manhattan, as though it’s necessary to fill every space with ... something.  I wonder how any business develops an identity when they are all crammed into this space. Hordes of people make it difficult to establish eye contact, and the sheer volume and crush of people create a sense of anxiety that I suppose they learn to live with.  For a visitor, it’s almost overwhelming.  I tend to get in and get out as quickly as possible.

The problem, really - is the people. They walk around with their noses in their cell phones, like lots of other people.  However, there are WAY more people on the streets of New York City than there are in any usual situation. I have become better at the "heads up" warning for them. I can’t imagine that they have such a high position in life that they have to be constantly connected.  I have no idea what they are doing, but it’s obviously more important to them than watching where they ar going.

Which is the other thing. They bump into you. Sometimes bluntly, other times it’s just a brush of the arm.  Either way, there is never an apology or an "excuse me."  It seems to be normal, and they seldom move away.  Again, the Rube is supposed to avoid them. I’m working on that, too.

There is a lot of car horn blowing, as if blowing a horn makes traffic disappear. I’ve seen it, and it doesn’t.  All it does is create that city noise.  It gets to where you hardly notice it.  Traffic is constant, whether it’s 3:00pm or 1:00am, it’s there. After all, it’s the City that Doesn’t Sleep.

But, I think it could use a nap.

Election Day

There is an election coming up on Tuesday. Surely, you’ve heard or seen.  Since I’ve been alive for many decades and have seen elections come and go, the process is similar every time:

VOTE FOR ME. THE OTHER GUY SUCKS. HE (SHE) TAKES MONEY FROM BIG BUSINESS AND DOESN’T CARE ABOUT YOU AND YOUR PROBLEMS.

Meanwhile, Election Day after Election Day goes by and ... do things ever get better?  No, not really.  They keep taxing and spending, and when they cut taxes (so they say) we wonder where the cuts are and how much we really get.  That’s the illusion - making us believe we are getting something when we are really getting nothing. It’s politics 101.

So, here we are in 2018 - with another mid-term election that “they” say is the most important in recent times. OK then, show me.  Show me that the person I vote for will actually make things easier for me, because I pay your salary and all.

Ronald Reagan said he would “take government off our backs,” but he was so old and senile that I don’t think he realized what the fuck was going on.  Government is more on our backs than ever.

Go ahead and vote. It’s your right, and kind of a privilege. But, don’t expect anything to get better for YOU because you aren’t voting for YOU - you are voting for THEM.

So, Now What?

"Nail in my hand, from my creator.

You gave me life now, 

Show me how to live."

 - the late great Chris Cornell

The thing that most big companies don't understand is - OK, we gave you this - now, what?

And, it isn't as if I don't work for a "big company" because I do not - but that doesn't influence the way the people in charge view themselves. Big? Yeah - OK. Us? Maybe not so much.

They have a department called Human Resources, but they often lack the Human part.  The Resources are there, but who is in charge?

So --- I am faced with the third most important decision of my life tomorrow, and I have virtually no one to lean on to say whether or not I am making the right decision.

As it has always been.

OK, So Here’s the Thing

My company - out of left field - has offered an early retirement package to old-timers like myself.  They didn’t say it outright (because they cannot) but it appears that there is no future for those of us over 60.  The world has moved onto Millenials and their ilk who are content to earn a few bucks and move on.  People like me want to make a career out of our job and count on full employment until age 65.  Well, that’s out the window.

As you probably do not know, I turned 61 last week.  As such, I’m a year away from claiming Social Security benefits and at least three years away from retiring securely.  As many of you know, I have been investing in growth stocks believing that I have some time left. Well then -  that has changed.

WIth the company’s notice last week, I suddenly find that I am less than two years away from being “out of work.”  I have been working since I was 17 years old, and the prospect of being unemployed at 62 is not at all appealing to me. Wondering if any women could use a middle-aged giggo. I’m open for the job, and figure it’s easy money - but that is by the way.

I am literally losing sleep over their announcement and the subsequent market downturn, which seems to be well-timed. [What did they know, and when did they know it?]. It leaves me with several questions:

• Do they really want me to retire, or is it just a mass email and it’s up to us?
• Are we being forced out?
• Is this a one-time deal” (Probably)
• If I say “no,” will I be let go without any of the proposed benefits?
• Can I survive on my savings and my pension?

All of these are crystal ball questions, and since I do not have one, I am left with my own senses, which have now always served me well.  

The gypsy in me says, “Yeah, go ahead” and fuck the job.  Sure. 

The sensible part of me says, “You still have a 93-year-old mother to care for, and you’re responsible for part of her income.”  That’s the bigger part.  I can’t be a total dick and just leave her on her own without my help.

These are not easy decisions.

If I had it left to me, I’d sell this condo and move to Alabama - where living is cheap and life is easy.  But it’s not left to me.

It almost never is.

Road Worrier (Part Three)

I don’t travel much. In fact, I don’t often leave the house - so traveling is a luxury that I do reluctantly and usually at someone else’s expense.  However, once I commit to it, I’m enthusiastic about seeing new places and learning about them.  Lately, my advanced age has led me to being curious as to what life is like [here] and talking to locals, picking their brains and finding out if the place is as nice as it seems.

Coming from New Jersey, almost anyplace I go is both different and interesting.  Perhaps people from other parts of the world feel like that about New Jersey, but if they spoke to residents, they’d discover what a crap-hole New Jersey is.  For example:

When I go someplace, I work the conversation around what it’s like to live there, because I’m curious about whether it’s as nice as it seems.

I ask about the cost of living, and what it’s like to be there on a day-to-day basis.  My new example comes from my latest visit to Alabama.  I went on Zillow and found two homes in a nearby neighborhood.  Three-bedroom ranchers, new kitchen, garage, and a nice sized lot. $77,000 and ... property taxes were $250 a year.  I tell people that the average property tax in New Jersey is $8,600. When their head explodes, I also inform them that we have a State lottery, State income tax, State sales tax, casino gambling, and the highest car insurance rates in the United States.  I wonder where all the money goes, and they just shake their heads and commiserate. 

In that vein, I realize that, on my future retirement fixed income, any place ANY PLACE would be better to live than New Jersey.  Granted, living in Arizona would be a little more expensive than living in Alabama (which is probably the cheapest in the country) but the overall experience would be worth it - and still cheaper than New Jersey.

The advantage of living in New Jersey is that it’s better to go ANY PLACE than here. At one point, I wondered, “Where would I shop?” But the advent of Amazon, online shopping, and the general ability to get anything delivered makes the convenience of nearby shopping a moot point. I have Netflix, Amazon Prime, Ebay, and mobile payment of my bills - so what do I need with shopping centers and banks?

It is difficult to get an accurate opinion of a place by being there for a week, and I try to temper my enthusiasm with the idea that I’d probably get sick of some tiny part of living there once I was a resident for a while, but that’s probably true of any place I’d go.  But then again, if I never left the house, would it matter where I was?

NEXT: Where will I go?

Road Worrier (Part Two)

My traveling anxiety exists in several levels, with the final level being zero - which I suppose is the ideal level. However, the overall average level of anxiety is many levels above zero, and therein lies the problem.

The highest level exists shortly after I commit to the trip. Signing-into Expedia and booking the trip are exciting, since I get to choose when I leave and what sort of vehicle I am renting.  Shortly thereafter, however, I get the shivers thinking about all of the things I have to do before I leave, and how I have to arrange my schedule and alter my lifestyle to accommodate this trip.

The main problem with having an ordered life is finding out what to do with the things that are part of that ordered life once the order is changed.  Perhaps I would be less anxious if I traveled for work frequently, or had some sort of oddball lifestyle that gave me the opportunity to travel more than once or twice a year for something other than work.  The only thing that lessens my anxiety is the fact that I am usually not paying for the travel. It’s almost always for work, and as such, I carry less concern over the difference over a non-stop flight versus layovers, or the cost of parking.  In the long run, it’s not worth agonizing over.  Usually, the hotel accommodations are part of the trip, so I don’t have to worry about how that works out.  The only issue is the booking of travel, and I have only had one issue with that:

Last year, I went to Alabama for a workshop.  Since I was staying longer than what the workshop entitled, I booked the airfare separately than the rental car.  I booked the Philadelphia-to-Birmingham airfare easily.  Separately, I booked a rental car in Birmingham.  Looked cheap, and the fact that it was a manual transmission neither concerned me nor bothered me, as I was looking forward to driving a manual transmission car for a week.

Once I got to the rental counter in Birmingham, the clerk looked a few times at her computer and my booking reservation - back and forth enough to worry me - and then finally tell me, "Your rental car is in Birmingham, England."  Ooops.  The ensuing struggle between their customer service and myself was enough to make me pay more attention to which country I am in when I reserve a rental car.  Fortunately, for my next trip to Alabama earlier this year, I flew to and from Nashville - and there is no Nashville, England - so my rental car reservation was filled smoothly.  We learn from our mistakes, right?

My anxiety level decreases gradually. From the high of booking to a lower level of leaving well in advance of my scheduled time, to getting to my car-park, to getting me from car-park to airline check-in, to checking-in my bags, and getting through airport security.  Once I am through security and near by boarding area, my anxiety level decreases to almost zero.  I have taken the responsibility away from ME and transferred it to THEM, and I now know that there is nothing I can do that will further enhance my experience.  Once something is out of my control, I no longer have any worry over it. Strange maybe, but me.

I am crazy-early for everything I do: Work, entertainment, travel ... whatever. I can’t stand being late for anything - or even on time. I want to limit as much stress from my life as possible, and being early means that I will have one less thing to worry about. As a result, for my latest flight from Phoenix to Philadelphia that left at 9:58am, I arrived at the airport at 6:30am. I thought nothing of having almost four hours to kill, and in fact, reveled in it.

Once I am on the plane, the only issue I’ll have is whether I can get through the flight without having to get up to urinate. For a flight to Birmingham, that’s a cinch. Anything longer than three hours, and we may have an issue.  I hate asking anyone to get up, so I request an aisle seat wherever I go - sporting events, concerts, movies, etc., and I can relax a little if I know I won’t have to ask someone to get up who may be sleeping or involved in some media that I may be interrupting.  "Sorry, but I have to perform a natural bodily function. Hope you don’t mind," would be a good way to start that request, but I don’t want to get into an argument in a confined space 30,000 feet above the ground, so I deal with it the best I can.

For someone as neurotic and anxious as I, the flight doesn’t bother me in the least. As I believe, once something is out of my control, I have no worries. Either the plane crashes or it lands safely. It’s out of my hands - literally.  What surprises me a little is how noisy it is. Our experiences of TV and movies tells us that plane travel is silent enough to have quiet conversations with your seat mates, and pick out subtle noises.  The fact is, it’s a high-decibel experience, and you’re likely to have an easier time talking to someone in a bar or small concert setting than aboard a flight. Don’t believe what you see on TV.

We used to get meals on long flights. Now, they charge for "fresh" meals, so you’re better off having a big meal in the airport. I’d guess that’s what has inspired the glut of airport eateries.  Overall, it makes me feel better about arriving four hours early for a flight.  It gives me time to have a nice meal and use the rest room three or four times before takeoff.  In fact, for my last trip from Phoenix to Philly, I wound up with at least two hours to sit down and have a nice breakfast.  The five-hour flight was filled hunger-free with only Fred Stoller’s Kindle Single book "Five Minutes to Kill" which oddly took me WAY more than five minutes to read - thankfully. Well done, Fred.  Getting lost in something is a great way to stop thinking about how long it’s been since I last ate or urinated.

The anxiety level goes back up once the plane gets on the ground and I have to get my luggage and find my rental car or shuttle. That responsibility goes from me to them, and that’s the problem.  Perhaps I don’t trust people enough?
I don’t believe that my life matters as much to me as it does to them. That is certainly a truth, It’s also a problem.

NEXT: Getting Around and Getting Along.

Road Worrier (Part One)

Twice in the last month, I have traveled for work.  Lately, it’s the only sort of traveling I do. Fortunately, it is mostly paid for by my company - airfare, hotel, rental car, parking, meals, etc.; as long as it’s on what would normally be my time.  The only things I feel like I should pay for (and do) are extra meals or snacks and alcoholic beverages.  It’s the least I can do.

My experiences with flying are limited, but improving. I have learned the subtle art of self-check-in, and uploading boarding passes to my cell phone - all of which are probably basic to those of you who travel frequently. I have had varied experiences with airports in Philadelphia, Birmingham, Nashville, and Phoenix to get a gist of what it’s like to be in different airports.  Mostly, it’s filled with people who want to get somewhere as quickly as possible, even though often, the effort is worthless.

American Airlines boards flights in groups. I think the priority depends on how often you travel, since originally, I was in Group 9 (the last group) and lately I was in Group 6.  They seem to value the group numbering system as some sort of privilege, but I’m happier to be in Group 9, since I want to spend the least amount of time on the airplane as possible.  Why is it a privilege to board first, and then sit for a half hour on the tarmac? I’d rather be last to board, make that final trip to the rest room, and then get on the plane 10 minutes before it leaves the boarding area.

Almost everyone on the plane takes some sort of carry-on bag with them.  Always, the airline announces that "We are out of overhead space" and they offer free check-in for carry-on bags because of the lack of space. I figure, it’s a scam for passengers who just do it to get their bags checked for free. Schmucks like me pay $25 for our checked bags and carry-on a small bag with my cell phone and personal items.  I’d rather pay the 25 bucks than go through the hassle of finding overhead space or scamming the airline out of the bag fee. That’s just how I am.

I’m not sure about the sense of the "Group" boarding system.  You can be in Group One and be in the back row or the front row. You can be in Group Nine and be in the front row or the back row. It makes more sense to be to board the plane from back to front. That way, the people in Group Eight won’t have to wait 10 minutes while the people in Group Six wait to find overhead space and their seats.  They could get the plane boarded quicker and leave on time, instead of ten minutes later than scheduled.  But then, I don’t run an airline, so what do I know?

My flight to Phoenix from Philadelphia took 5.5 hours. I paid extra for an aisle seat, because I knew I couldn’t sit still for that long without having to use the rest room at least twice - and I’d rather get up for other people than to ask them to get up. That’s who I am.  Watching my fellow passengers, I noticed that, out of about 200 passengers on our 321 Airbus, only 30 or so got up.  "How can anyone sit for more than five hours without having to get up to pee?" I wondered.  The sociologist in me wanted to ask them as they got off, but the rest of me decided to just chalk it up to the oddities of human behavior.

We sit, schrunched-in next to each other for a long time, and often, we don’t say a word to each other. Either they have their head buried in a book (or Kindle) or they are wearing headphones watching episodes of "The Marvelous Mrs. Maizel." I suppose the idea is, "I’m never going to see these people again, so why bother?"  It’s the same as being in an elevator. Look around, but don’t break the ice.

There are two types of people: Open-window sight-seers and closed-window privacy seekers. Being in the middle or aisle seat leaves one at the mercy of them, and the problem with the closed-window group is the THUNK that I feel when the plane lands and I have no idea of our altitude.  For me, it’s interesting to see our world from thousands of feet in the air, and I’ll never forget the look of Las Vegas at night, coming into McCarran Airport, and seeing "The Jewel of the Desert" in all its glory.  How often does that happen in ones life and why wouldn’t you want to see it?

And then, there is the inevitable rush to get to baggage claim. It’s the classic "hurry up and wait" scenario. I had time to saunter along the walkway, stop to use the rest room, and then had 10 minutes to kill before the carousel started moving. I wonder if so many of them have never traveled before, or if they’re just goofy?  My airport experiences are limited, and even I know that unloading baggage, transporting it, and getting it on the carousel is laborious. What’s their hurry?  Again, I chalk it up to the vagaries of human behavior and how important it is for some people to be first in line, regardless of whether or not they are the first to leave.

They are in that Group One deal, I’d guess.

NEXT: Travel Prep and my levels of anxiety.

Don’t Just Do Something, Stand There.

Sometimes, the best thing to do is nothing.  Such may be the case now.  The markets are in turmoil.  The Federal Reserve is hawkish on rates. The President says they are "crazy."  Bond yields are going up...

At the same time, companies are reporting increasing earnings. Revenues are up, and the tax break has given them billions of dollars with which to buy back their own stock - which is now trading at a low compared to a year ago.

Meanwhile, my favorite company Square (NYSE: SQ) has lost its CFO, and the sellers have bitten into our former $100 share price, taking it down to today’s $69.  But fear not (he said) Jack is still running the show, and they have multiple assets in house that are being run by other great leaders, so if you’re interested, there may be a time to get in over the next few days.  The Wayback Machine has been set to early summer levels.

For the record (if there is one) I have sold nothing, even though the temptation is there.  I invested in these companies because I liked their fundamentals. The only thing that has changed is the market. Nothing about the companies has changed, so if anything, I have reason to buy more, not sell.  That said, I am most interested in Microsoft, AMD, Target, and (still) Del Taco, who seems to be overlooked in the domestic food industry. We’ll see soon enough, as they have earnings coming up at the end of October.

What else?  Oh yeah - the safe haven of commodities.  You should be looking at copper (CPER) silver (SIVR) and an overall commodities ETF that trades under the ticker symbol GCC.  If you are nervous about stocks, several commodities are trading at historical lows, and you could do worse than investing in silver, copper, and raw materials. Dribble money in over the next few months and be prepared to hold on for five years or so.

If you like bonds, go ahead, but as rates rise, your good old cash will start paying in the 3% range, so that’s also a safe haven for you.  For now though, I’d sit tight and see what happens over the next week or so.  The Fed has yet to decide on another rate increase, and we’re at the start of earnings season.  A lot will depend on what the banks (Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Citibank et al) say about the overall outlook and their revenues going forward. Bad news could be a sell signal. Good news could be -- well -- good.

Just don’t be in a hurry to do anything.  It’s bigger than we may realize.

The [ROCK AND ROLL] Hall of Fame

Eh -- I don't know -- this whole Hall of Fame thing.  Aren't record sales and concert attendance enough? Do we need awards and enshrinement for artistic accomplishments?

The nominees for the 2019 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame are out, and I of course, have some opinions. Who would I be if I didn't? Opinionless.

The slam-dunks on the list for me are Devo and Kraftwerk. That's right.  Both of them revolutionized a genre and are landmark musicians.  Isn't that what the R&R HoF is about?  (yeah, I don't know, either). I'd also vote for Rage Against the Machine.  There, I said it.

Otherwise, my Honorable Mentions are Todd Rundgren and Stevie Nicks.  I'd guess that Stevie is in as a member of Fleetwood Mac, but her solo career also stands out and I suppose you could apply the "Landmark" label to her, as well.  My biggest kudo to Rundgren is that he co-produced Badfinger's "Stand Up" album, which is epic.  OK, so he also wrote some great songs, but really -- how many of them could you mention or recite the lyrics to? (I'll give you a minute)

.....

OK then, as for the rest of the list of nominees.

The Zombies.  Seriously?  They fall under the category of One-Hit Wonders, not Hall-of-Famers.

Def Leppard.  Feh.  A one-armed drummer is a novelty, and I suppose that could get them in.

LL Cool J.  I thought this was "Rock and Roll?"

MC5.  A dark horse, and a cult band. Hall of Fame worthy?  no. Stop ten people on the street and ask them to tell you what the "MC" stands for.  HINT: It's Motor City.  Yeah, you didn't know either.

Rufus featuring Chaka Khan. Um ... no. If you have to say "featuring" in your band name, there is an issue.

John Prine.  Another cult favorite, and he'll probably get some write-in votes from fans.

Roxy Music.  Just a bit short of "fame-worthy" status.  Other than giving us Brian Eno, they really haven't accomplished enough to be enshrined.

The Cure.  They might get in, with this weak class.  The same way Goose Gossage got into the Baseball Hall of Fame.  But, we'll know.  We'll know.

Radiohead.  Oh boy.  That would be like putting jean shorts into the Clothing Hall of Fame.  We hate them, but we appreciate what they did in their field.

Janet Jackson.  I suppose she'll get in, if for nothing else but revolutionizing the Super Bowl halftime show.  But this is my ballot, and I say she isn't Hall of Fame worthy.

Which begs the question:  What's with the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, if they're going to nominate people like John Prine, Kraftwerk, and Janet Jackson?  Either rename it the Pop Music Hall of Fame, or stop putting musicians in it who aren't rock and roll.  

OK, I get it, it's Cleveland, and that's supposed to be the birthplace of rock and roll - but you have to be real about this.

If they are going to call it the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and nominate bands like Devo and Kraftwerk, then I'm going to support them on both their body of work and their influence on music.  That seems to be the criteria, otherwise, why nominate John Prine?

The whole thing is confusing. Bottom line:  I know what I like, and I don't need a Hall of Fame to validate it. 

Warren Zevon isn't in. Nick Drake isn't in. Kate Bush isn't in.  T-Rex isn't in. There are so many glaring exceptions that I cannot support fringe candidates when there are others who are deserving - mostly posthumously - but deserving nonetheless.

Kristin Hersh.

That said, I still have a problem with awarding art in any form.  Creating art is its own reward, and being enshrined in some "hall" is an ancillary benefit of the gift you have given us.  It seems to me that the award is more about us and our tastes than it is about recognizing you and your art.

So -- maybe this is just pointless?  I already know what I like.

And, so do you.

Space Force

When I read the story today, I though maybe it was something from The Onion - or maybe I should check my calendar to see if it was April 1.  We're making a Space Force.

The latest lunatic idea from the Trump Administration is called Space Force, which is an idea that would have been turned down by every producer of 1980s television, but is somehow relevant in his "Us Against the Universe" idea of government.

As though it wasn't bad enough that he is a white-supremicist Nationalist, he has to go a step (or a Giant Leap) forward and proclaim that he is not only a Nationalist but a Universalist as well - if that's even a word.  Or, maybe it is now.

Appropriately enough, he handed the announcement over to his Second-In-Command Mike Pence - who strangely, some people feel is a better choice given a Trump impeachment - but that's another story for another day --- and announced it in some strange fashion with a press conference that could have been called by me for all the attention it was given.

"A fifth branch of the military," they called it, and we are supposed to accept that. Meanwhile, we're a trillion dollars in debt, can't decide on health care, a living wage, or a solution for the dying Social Security Administration.  Somehow, we can make up a new branch of the military AND ask taxpaying citizens their opinion on a new logo.

Which one do you prefer?  I prefer the one that will get me off of this planet the quickest while these two nincompoops are in charge.

Seriously - Space Force?  What the fuck is going on?

Curbed My Enthusiasm

I can’t get worked-up over nonsense.

I have no idea why some people get crazy over who wins an award, a game, or some other so-called expert who proclaimed a champion prior to the game being played.

As it is, I cannot get worked-up over any game or competition that does not involve me or my capability to earn a living.  As it is, the only things I can get motivated for are my job, paying my bills, eating, and exercising - which would appear to be the minimum requirements for living in the world today.

Once I lose that motivation, you’ll see me on Broad Street, across from Wawa looking for a few pennies to get a breakfast sandwich or some coffee.

Perhaps it won’t be long?  So, remember what I look like, and stop by and see me sometime next year when I’m holding a sign and squatting on a grate.

It might represent the last thing I care about.

Bears, Beets, Battlestar Gallactica

Listening to Michael Hedges' music always clears my mind. Similarly, a trip to the Hirshorn Gallery or the East Building at the National Gallery of Art, or MoMa -- you get the picture.  It's a cleansing experience, and makes me appreciate art and what good it does for us.

On the other hand (it's always the other hand that gets in trouble) it clears things up for me and allows me to see the incongruities (geez) in life and the things that we take for granted.  Like today ---

Hundreds (thousands?) of people stood in long lines at Build-A-Bear Workshops to get a bear for the price of the age of their child.  For those of you doing math, that means that a 4-year-old could get a stuffed bear for --- four dollars.  Need I go further?  Inexplicably, more than half of the bear-enthusiasts were turned away because ... well, they ... um ... over-booked.

Yes, the company did not anticipate that huge numbers of humanity would stand in line for several hours to get a stuffed animal for a kid ...

... a kid, by the way, who will never understand the value of five dollars. How long does it take mom and/or dad to earn that money?  A half-hour? A half-minute? Regardless, the value of the prize is lost on a kid who only wants a cotton-stuffed version of an animal that could eat him in a minute.

The parents, however, driven by guilt and a strange sense of giving, want to do that for their kids, because - well, they're our KIDS and we'd do anything for them, including taking valuable time off of work to stand in line to get something that they could just as easily order online for maybe three-times the cost?  After all, nothing is too good for our kids ...

... including talking on our phones while we are driving them around, texting while driving, or any other dangerous activity that you might be involved in while your precious children are present. But, I digress.

After all, you're looking out for them, right?

OK then, that includes voting, and I'm hoping that you did, because a scant 40% of registered voters did so in the last presidential election.  I'd guess that your vote would be more important than standing in line for a stuffed animal - right?

According to statistics, no. So, perhaps we should be working with retailers to encourage you to go out and vote?  Maybe, if we provided the same incentives that baseball teams or retailers provide, we could get you to stand in line to vote?

Hot dogs for a dollar. A free t-shirt. Twenty-percent off your taxes?  Whatever it takes to get you off your ass enough to care as much about the future of our country as you do about getting a fucking stuffed animal for your over-privileged child.

More Coffee?

Starbucks is closing 150 stores, and General Electric has been removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  That’s a big day.

Perhaps Americans have enough coffee, perhaps Starbucks has achieved their growth target, or maybe it’s just a sign of the times?  After all, old brick-and-mortar retail is suffering, and while you cannot buy a cup of coffee on the Internet (yet) there is plenty of competition over the coffee space, and consumers might be tiring of paying eight dollars for a product that they can get at home with a Keurig or someplace else cheaper.

Perhaps they are coming to their senses? Or, perhaps I give consumers too much credit?  Either way, the joke about a Starbucks across the street from a Starbucks is too real to ignore, and it might be time for them to step back and try to re-invent the company in some way.  It’s coffee, after all, and how much renovation can they make?

As for investing in SBUX - if it gets to $48 start sniffing around.  Now, at $56 it’s an expensive stock, and trading at too high a multiple to be attractive.

The stodgy old Dow Jones Industrial Average is making a long overdue change.  It’s a price-weighted average, so a $13 stock like GE has no place in an average of companies that are either higher priced or actual growth stories.  Why they picked Wallgreen’s Boots Alliance is beyond me, but that may be a story for another day.

In the investing world, the Dow is antiquated, and real-life traders and analysts don’t really pay attention to it. It’s more of a newsy-news story when it reaches some new plateau like 25,000 or whatever number is next on the zero list.  You should be paying attention to the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 2000 for a real read on what “the market” is doing.  The Dow is price-weighted, so a move in a $300 stock like Boeing matters more than a move in a $66 stock like Walgreen’s.

So, it’s not really a big deal, it’s a cosmetic change to something that only matters to the people keeping track of numbers.  The problems at GE won’t be hurt or solved by this. It’s a giant battleship that will take years to turn - if it can be turned - and whether or not it is in an arbitrary average of stocks is neither here nor there.

Don’t buy or sell GE or WBA based on this.  WBA is slightly undervalued, and if you believe that people will still be doing major business at drug stores in ten years, have at it.  As for GE, if you have a time horizon and don’t mind watching the stock go to perhaps $9 or $10, start dripping money in.  You’ll have to trust that management can divest itself of the bad aspects of the business and make the best of the good parts.  After all, that’s what good management does, right?

Forced Patriotism

If you believe, as I do, that "The Star Spangled Banner" is a song about a war that we lost, and how the big positive of the deal is that "the flag was still there," then maybe you'll get this.  Whatever ....

There has been a lot of bluster, screaming, outrage, and other stuff over the National Anthem and what people do while it is played - at sporting events, mostly - because that's where they play it, mostly.

Stand, kneel, sit, take off your cap ... do whatever they tell you, right?

And, for the record, I have stood at Fort McHenry and looked out at the place where "the flag was still there," and yeah, I got a little chill thinking about it, but that's where it stopped.  Mostly, it's because of the ceremony of the thing.  Otherwise, it's just a song praising war.  But I digress...

The kerfuffle started when a few NFL players decided to do something other than stand at attention while the song was being played.  That caused one of those Internet Outrages that have become so popular.  One wonders what would have happened if it was 1971.  I suppose TV stations would have gotten a hundred phone calls and newspapers would get twenty letters. But, as it is, the Internet allows us to vent our outrage instantly and have the comments pile up like horse dung on a parade route.

So, the National Football League (emphasis on National) in its infinite wisdom (?) has decided that, after much debate (?) that players must either stand in silence during the anthem or wait in the locker room until game time.  Show your protest, but do it on your own time.  There's nothing to see here.

Either stand and salute, or be fined, they said.  One wonders how forced patriotism is patriotism at all. Or, is it fascism? Or worse?  I don't know. Talk amongst yourselves.  I only know that making people do things doesn't make the people better.

When I was a kid, I was forced to attend something called Vacation Bible School.  I cherished my summers off from school, and being forced to attend a daily "school" regardless of its intent, didn't make me a better person.  It merely reinforced the idea that I had no control over my life, since I had neither a driver's license or adult free will.  So, off I went.  Was I a better kid? No, but that didn't mean that Vacation Bible School wasn't a raging success, because we all showed-up.  I never asked the other kids in school whether or not they wanted to be there, but I digress ...

Here we have this National Anthem thing, and somehow, if you don't stand, remove your cap and salute the flag, you are somehow not a patriot - whatever that is.  Last year, I went to an Alabama University football game.  When they played the anthem, almost everyone there stood with their hands over their heart (or where their heart was presumed to be) while the song was being played.  I didn't, since I wasn't brought up that way.  I wondered if they were better Americans than me. No.

It's just a song, really.  And, ask yourself (as I have) why do we only play it before sporting events?  Why not movies, theater, concerts, or other stuff like prior to the start of our work day?  What gives sports the exclusive rights to the thing?  And, what ties sports into patriotism?  So many questions, and I guess that makes me horrible for asking, but I'll ask anyway.

I have the idea that most of the people who stand and do all those things while the song is being played don't know why they're doing it - other than, "Somebody told me to."  Well, as my mother used to say, "If somebody told you to jump off the Ben Franklin Bridge, would you do it?"  Blind obedience and forced behavior doesn't make you a better American than the other guy.  It just makes you more subservient. 

And what has being subservient ever gotten anyone in America?  Wasn't the country founded on not being that?

No Guns, Just Stuff.

I really hate to write about such mundane things as investing and life, because they don’t get nearly the page views of my rants on gun culture and the ridiculous state of politics in America - but here we go.

What have I been doing lately, while the market has been going nuts (up and down) and some people have been scared out of it. I hate to sell and trade, but sometimes, it’s necessary.

I sold my position in Extreme Networks (EXTR) after a double over the past year.  In retrospect, I could have sold it much higher, but I usually wait for earnings, and this latest report was absurdly negative, so I decided to cash-in my profit rather than wait for the upturn, which may take more than a year.

I also sold 25% of my stake in Square (SQ).  As much as I love the company I felt like the stock had run-up to $55 from my purchase price of $26, so I felt it prudent to take some profits and watch it go, if it does.  There has been some selling over a recent battle with PayPal (PYPL) and frankly, I’m not worried.  The way things are today, the market reacts negatively to any sort of competition.  Whether it’s Amazon, Costco, or WalMart, it seems that there is little tolerance for any sort of competitive interference.
it’s odd, because the market itself is based on competition, and companies like Square have been able to prosper in the face of it - so, I just turn a deaf ear to it.

Where is the new money going?  General Electric (GE), which I have been buying since its seeming low at around $12.  It’s difficult to turn a battleship, and GE may be one huge battleship that will take years to turn.  As for me, I’m still buying now that the stock is at the $15 range, and I continue to be looking at it as a turnaround story.

UnderArmour (UA) has run-up too much for my liking recently.  I started buying it in the $11 range, and was hoping it would stay there for a while so that I could accumulate more.  Unfortunately, a couple of positive earnings quarters and upgrades have sent the stock into the high-teens, and I’ll hold it here waiting for either a positive catalyst or a negative that would prompt me to buy more.

DelTaco (TACO) continues to be a hold. The stock has been quietly gaining ground as the casual dining segment begins to find its footing.  As I have said, I have faith in management, and I own enough that I don’t look to add more, but merely hold on and wait for the market to catch up with this wonderful story.  It may take a year or more, but - where am I going?

Regional banks are a new story.  With rates rising, and tax breaks making the space a reliable place to be, I continue to hold Key Bank (KEY) and have put in an order to buy more if it goes to $20. The stock is fairly valued here, but could dip into the 20-range, which I feel would make it a buy.  There are other regionals, including Regions Financial (RF) Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) Philly-local The Bancorp (TBBK) and OFG Bancorp (OFG) that are compelling, but - do your due diligence.

Oil continues to go higher, and my investment in Cenovus (CVE) has been a winner, running from $7.25 to $11.00 as the price of oil has risen.  The thing about investing is, you can’t get worked-up over short-term pain that you may experience as a consumer.  Rather, you have to appreciate that it’s going to happen, and take advantage.  I hate oil like a passion, but there’s no doubt that the place to be is in the oil and natural gas space.  It’s not too late.  CVE is valued at $21 a share.  Wait for a dip and get in.

Meanwhile, long-term holdings Pfizer (PFE) and Cisco Systems (CSCO) continue to chug along.  Even though it appeared that there was a selling opportunity in Cisco after their latest earnings report, I felt like the CEO had enough positive things to say that the long-term outlook was sunnier than the short-term, which is where we tend to look.
As for Pfizer, the long-term story is more compelling than the short-term selling opportunity.  Both CSCO and PFE pay an appealing dividend, so I’m content to be paid to wait.

Meanwhile, I’m looking for an opportunity to sell Acco Brands (ACCO) as I feel that I’ve waited long enough for something to happen. Looking in the $13 range to get out.

Still compelling: Microsoft, Salesforce, Hanes Brands, Allergan, and Slumberger.  Do your research.

I Am Tired of Your Gun Culture

Some things are just too hard to figure out with our small people brains.
Lawn darts killed three children between 1970 and 1994, and as such, they were made illegal in the United States and Canada.

On 19 December 1988, all lawn darts were banned from sale in the United States by the Consumer Product Safety Commission after they were responsible for the deaths of three children since 1970.  In 1989, they were also banned in Canada.
In 1982, some nutjob poisioned  some Tylenol capsules.  As a result, we can’t open a bottle of pills or a beverage without going through a major operation, even though authorities never identified who was responsible.

The Chicago Tylenol murders were a series of poisoning deaths resulting from drug tampering in the Chicago metropolitan area in 1982. The victims had all taken Tylenol-branded acetaminophen capsules that had been laced with potassium cyanide.  A total of seven people died in the original poisonings, with several more deaths in subsequent copycat crimes.

Cigarettes kill us (supposedly) with second-hand smoke.  As a result, people can’t smoke in public places because that endangers the general public, although not immediately.
Meanwhile, children are being shot and killed in schools across America, and little or nothing is being done about it. If cigarettes, lawn darts, or Tylenol had the political power of the National Rifle Association, (why isn’t it the National Gun Association?)  we’d still be able to smoke in public, open a bottle of pills, or play a game on our lawn without violating the law.

As it is, there is a dedicated band of gun nuts (yes, nuts) who feel like our Constitution allows them the right (Right) to kill people with their weapon of choice, while other less offensive weapons have already been deemed illegal by whatever law you want to apply.

Your right to form a militia has been replaced by our military, and your right to "bear arms" has been replaced by the military’s ability to do the same thing in lieu of your living room.  It’s simple, really.
The Second Amendment is an antiquated idea whose time has come and gone. It is time for the NRA and their financial supporters to realize this, and come to the conclusion that our so-called rights infringe on others’ rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness - which I also know is in that Constitution that you so heartily support.

The New NORML

It’s been a long time coming (as the song said) but finally, The United States (or parts of it) have come to the realization that marijuana isn’t the horrible evil our ancestors viewed it to be.

In a quest to fund government, several states have found it convenient to legalize the “Evil Weed” and collect taxes on its consumption, much as they do with alcohol.  As it is with a lot of things, it’s a bad idea until we run out of ways to collect taxes.  Then, things that were once considered horrible - alcohol, gambling, and cigarettes - are now wonderful because the states can tax them.  Resistance is futile, and the resistance has met its match with marijuana.  States have run out of ways to tax us, so now, marijuana is no longer considered vile.  It’s a revenue source, which makes it ... well, a good idea.

Today is April 20.  Once considered an inside joke among pot heads, it has now become a national media day of recognition.  As it is with a lot of things, once the media attaches itself to something, it is no longer hip or relevant, and becomes a horrible “outside joke” that is a tongue-in-cheek version of what was once kind of cool.  Guys in suits joking about pot.  Yeah, that’s funny.

We are forced to endure the stupid pot references and jokes that border on sexual innuendo because ... well, it’s drugs - and drugs are bad, right?  I liked it better when it was in the background.

One of the great things about following unpopular bands is that you can go to small venues like the Electric Factory, Theater of the Living Arts, Underground Arts, and Union Transfer to see them.  Once they become popular, it’s harder (if not impossible) to get tickets to larger places where they don’t sound as good and are forced to pander to their popularity.  The “inside joke” has vanished in lieu of the popularity.

It will happen - sooner than later - that marijuana will go from the inside joke to the popular choice.  Be prepared to go through the jokes, innuendo, and snide remarks about being high, even though it is legal.  They’ll tax the shit out of it, and you’ll be able to get it from a local dispensary, but at what price?

You may find that you were better off when you had to hide it.

What’s next? The sex trade.  More on that later.

It's Not All About Starbucks

The events of the past week are ridiculous on so many levels that it's almost funny.

When I read Tweets about it, I had no idea what had happened - only that something shitty happened at a Starbucks in Philadelphia.  Being a scant 20 minutes from the location, I felt odd that I didn't know what was going on.  Well - we all know now, so there's no need to recap.

The finger was pointed at Starbucks, but the real finger should have been pointed at the Philadelphia police department and the individual who called them to quell the so-called disturbance.  You see, Starbucks owns and operates 19,300 locations in the United States alone, and singling-out one for some racist behavior (so they say) is both unfair and ridiculous. Whether or not the two men violated store policy by asking to use the rest room without purchasing anything is minor.  Refusing to leave is the issue, and the cops needed to be sensitive to the problem.  Arresting them was the worst-case scenario.

As it is with today's society, activists jumped on the story.  Partly because it involved two black men, and partly because there is a genuine hatred for Starbucks, akin to the Walmart hate and the Facebook hate.  It's hate, and when something happens to one of those hated franchises, activists are quick to jump on the bandwagon because it's fueled by the attitude of, "See, I told you they were horrible" idea that permeates big corporations in America.

The Big Picture, however, has been lost in the protests and the hate and the racism.  What is the Big Picture?

Pooping and peeing.

Yep.  That very thing that all of us do, and we have to either hide, hold in, or find a place to do it.  When we are out in public, the second thing that crosses our minds is, "Where can I pee?"  I put it second because there's probably something more important than that.  Otherwise, when we are out in public and do not have to pee, we feel like we dodged a bullet of sorts, because there isn't always a McDonald's, Wawa, or other such public place where one can dodge in and grab a quick rest room break without having to purchase a product or plead, "Can I PLEASE use your bathroom?"

It's odd, in this century, to have to worry about such a thing.  After all, it's the one (or two) things that all of us do - even though we don't like to talk about it.  We all pee and poop.  C'mon, America. Admit it.  And generally, we're happy to poop, because it's one less thing we have to think about.  There's nothing quite like a good bowel movement, and the older you get, the more you appreciate it.

It's not like we can duck behind a building or run into a back alley, drop our zipper (men) and pee someplace.  In today's world, there's a camera posted that will likely run your public pee video on YouTube for all to see.

So yes, the issue isn't Starbucks, or racism, or the cops, or whatever else you want to march against.  The issue is public rest rooms, and why there aren't more of them, given the fact that it's the only thing we really need when we're out someplace.

If you want to protest something, start there.

Don’t Just Do Something - Stand There.

So, you want to invest in the stock market?  Well, mama told you there’d be days like these - didn’t she?  If she didn’t, then she’s a fool, and nature abhors a fool. She also should have told you that nobody makes money panicing.  So, don’t join the crowd and sell over macroeconomic conditions that do not necessarily affect your individual holdings. Look at what you own and hold on, because you bought value companies at a good price - at least that’s what I’ve been telling you to do.

The market is in “correction territory,” having dropped another 2.23% today, and closed at a level below the 200-day moving average for the first time since 2016. OK - that’s the technical stuff.  What’s going on?

We have a President in the White House who Tweets his sick mind at 3 in the morning, blasting such stalwarts as Amazon and claiming that he has some grand idea that the US Postal Service is losing money because of them.  Here’s a clue:  The USPS has been losing money for decades, and it’s not Amazon’s problem.  One of the goofy things he said was that he thinks that there should be a “level playing field” when it comes to retail.  OK, so now he wants to re-invent capitalism and retail so that there shouldn’t be any sort of competitive advantage in the world. Wake up, Donnie.

Piling-on was Elon Musk, who thought it would be a good idea to Tweet an April Fool’s joke about Tesla going “bankwupt” and sent the world into a tizzie for, well - not much, even though many in the financial community have been wondering how Tesla can pay their bills without another stock offering.  Many a truth was said in jest.  Suffice it to say, I told you that Tesla was overvalued, and it’s likely headed lower than today’s $252 closing price.

I also said the same thing about Facebook, although I had no idea (nor did they, apparently) about the pending government investigation over their data sharing nonsense.  Hey gang - it’s a free site.  What did you think they were doing with all of those “Say Amen” and “What is your Spirit Animal” information?  It’s not for your entertainment, trust me.

So - OK - what now?  Well —- if you find a nice pair of shoes at a good price, and they go on sale next week, do you throw out your old shoes and buy a pair on sale?  No.  You keep the old shoes and buy a new pair because they are cheaper than when you bought them.

That’s why you stick with your conviction buys and buy more when they’re on sale.  Tomorrow, everything will be on sale.

As for me, it’s Microsoft right now.  There is nothing in this current environment that makes me believe that Microsoft is suffering.  Their cloud business and Office 365 is going to provide growth for them.  The stock is easily worth $120, and the current $89 price is a bargain. Giddy-up.

I’m also buying more Under Armour and DelTaco.  The former is a huge bargain against its intrinsic value, and the latter is still a growth story that is independent of any tariffs or nonsense that Trump might Tweet.  Management needs to control costs, and I believe that they can.  At $10.30 a share, the stock is a huge growth discount buy.

There are a few others that deserve your attention.  Among them, Disney, Walmart, Google, and General Motors.  Tesla isn’t the only auto-maker getting hammered.  General Motors trades at a low P/E and has an inside track on the driverless car thingy.  At $35 a share, and a 4.11% dividend, it’s hugely undervalued.

Google is a stock whose baby has been thrown out with the bath water.  It trades at a forward (expected earnings) P/E of 23, and is a compelling bargain here, both for the company itself and the prospect of those driverless vehicles, through its Waymo division.

If you’re the more cautious type (which can be expected here) you might want to go with some defense against inflation - which I also told you about.  You could go with VTIP, which is the Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF, which pays a lusty 6.06% dividend, beating anything you can get at your local bank.

When inflation increases, cash loses value.  Generally, this means that traditional bonds also lose value, because the bonds’ future cash payments have also lost value.  TIPS automatically adjust value to track inflation.  So, if like me, you think the loose nut behind the wheel is causing the economy to fall into inflation, this could be an interesting (and profitable) investment. Hey - what have you got to lose at this point?

So - if you have followed the value guidelines I’ve laid out, you have little to fear, and should be shopping for more of what you already own.

If you have fresh cash to invest, there are plenty of opportunities, and now may be the time to start taking advantage of them.

Dollar-cost average into them, starting tomorrow - if you haven’t already.

We Did it to Ourselves

Perhaps you have enjoyed my posts about the stock market (mostly in the correct direction) or laughed at my good-natured jibes at modern America, or had a chuckle over my disassociated viewpoints about things and stuff.

Well - I’m guessing that is about to come to a crashing halt.

The most recent school shooting in Parkland, Florida - and by “most recent school shooting” it should alert you as to what is coming - has brought to mind several things that you humans have been debating but have brought upon yourselves.  What?

The good-old Second Amendment to the Constitution, for one.  It was written by a group of white slave-owners who also believed that one shouldn’t vote unless HE was a land owner.  This came in a time when single-load muskets were technology, and militias were formed to fight-off British invaders.  Gain some perspective.

Nowadays (I’m sure you’ve heard) we have semi-automatic weapons, and guns that can fire-off hundreds of rounds a second.  Not only that, but the militia has been replaced by an on-call military that doesn’t have to dress-up in their homes to defend our nation. We pay taxes for that.
AND, they supply their own weapons. Go figure.

The part you get hung-up on is the idea that the Founding Fathers were some sort of supernatural sages who foresaw a nation where muskets and citizen army’s were going to be normal.  It’s not.

They didn’t have any idea that children in school would be shot to death several times over the last 30 years, or that people going to concerts would have to fear for their lives, or that people boarding airplanes would have to remove their shoes ... you get the point .... right?

The second amendment is an antiquated notion, and we lean on it out of habit - not out of nevcessity. Nobody outside of the military needs an automatic weapo, and it’s not what the second amendment meant by “the right to bear arms.” You know that.

We entrap ourselves with a lot of old-world notions that have no place in modern society.  You accept computers, cell phones, air conditioning, and other such modern conveniences - yet you will not accept the idea that a notion brought about 200-plus years ago is somehow relevant to modern society.

Meanwhile, your children are being gunned-down in your support of this stupid idea.

So, go ahead and un-friend me, un-follow me, dislike, or whatever - hate me - because your politics or your ideals conflict.

The fact is - if it wasn’t for that ridiculous notion put forth on July 4, 1776 your kids would be safe because you wouldn’t be beholden to an antiquated notion of what you refer to as “freedom” because some guys with their heads in stone on a monument said it should be so.

Get your fucking head out of the sand.

Charting

It's not much, time-wise, but this is a graph (I know, I said "charting") of the S&P 500 sectors' performance during the year so far.

Unexpectedly (probably) the top growth sectors are coming from the riskiest areas, while the staid, old-guard stocks are underperforming.  Make of it what you will, but so far, the growth in our market is coming from some surprising areas.

It will be worthwhile to look at this again after earnings season, which kicks-of on Friday with the big banks.

OK, so here's your chart.  I took a look at this today and, even though I don't put much faith in charting, some things are too difficult to ignore.

It's a five-year chart of one of my favorite stocks, Salesforce.com (Symbol: CRM)

If we go back to May of 2012, and draw a line along the peaks in the stock, we can see that it has achieved higher highs, all the way through to late July of 2017.  In addition, during that same time period, the lows have been higher as well.  There has been a breakout from that trend that started in January of 2017.

Recently, the stock broke through the high-line into a new area, where it traded today at 109.10 - up significantly since I first recommended it in on December 15.

So, what now?  I like Salesforce (CRM) here, and would buy it in the 103-105 range, as it appears to be worth around $130.

So, what now?  You have two choices:  (a) you can anticipate the trend line and figure that the stock will continue higher, into the 130-range, or (2) you can wait for it to fall back to its low trend line, or somewhere in between - back to the 105-range.  I really can't see it trading back to that 75-to-80 level again, unless there is some major misstep with their earnings call, which is coming on February 28, when the company is expected to post earnings of $0.33 per share.

Yes, that makes the stock highly valued, and as such, any sort of negative news or lowered estimates will send investors running for their profitable exits.  But, that's the game, right?  They have to be able to convince Wall Street that the growth ride will continue.  If there were any sure things, you wouldn't be reading this.

Make of it what you will, do your due diligence, and invest wisely.