Thanksgiving is coming. No kidding. What bugs me about it is the choice of food. We're supposed to eat turkey. Why? On account of, because. It's what we eat. We make no effort on any other day to cook a giant turkey - other than Thanksgiving. Mostly, people find something to complain about. It's too dry. It's tough. It's cold (have you ever burned your mouth on Thanksgiving turkey? No). For what? Here's an idea: Gather your friends and family, and eat fish, or chicken, or burgers, or ... GOD ... whatever. Be thankful. Isn't that the idea?
Our annual company Holiday party is coming. Egad. I've been there 26 years and have not yet attended one. I'm not sure what that says about me, other than the idea that I don't like going to parties alone and I don't care to have someone sitting around counting my drinks. Especially since it's in Atlantic City, and they seem to pick the furthest possible place from everyone to hold a giant dinner/drinking/dancing party. But, that isn't the issue here.
The issue is that, when sitting around the lunch table with six co-workers, the topic comes up: Who is going to the Holiday Party? One person goes around the table, asking by name, if they're going. Until they run out of names, and mine is the only one left.
Am I supposed to volunteer: "No, I'm not going." Or, is it assumed that, because I am desperately single, that I am not going because I don't have a date? I assume the latter, and keep my mouth shut until someone changes the subject. And then, I continue to keep my mouth shut.
We call it the "Holiday Party" because we are supposed to be Politically Correct and stop calling it the Christmas Party. Today, there was a story on the local news about the "Holiday Tree" being set-up at the Philadelphia Art Museum. Is it a Holiday Tree? Which holidays have a tree as a symbol of the holiday? Kwanza? Hanukkah? Diwali? Nope. Hint: It's Christmas. So, why do we insist on calling it a "Holiday Tree" when it is clearly a Christmas Tree? Stop kidding yourselves, folks and live your life.
I feel like I should comment on the stock market, because I have made a habit out of it recently. OK, so here goes:
I love the underdog. Beaten-down companies whose growth prospects are slim, and their stocks have been killed mercilessly because big-time growth stocks have captured the imagination of investors, and their share prices have escalated beyond what rational thinkers (like me) would consider approachable. So, it's left to us to find the bottom-fish and ... well, go fishing. I submit:
DelTaco (TACO). I know I've mentioned this before, but it's a growth stock in a crowded space (casual dining) but the share price is down to nearly a 52-week low, and if you're interested, there is an entry point right here. As for me, I'm holding, and trying to buy more as finances allow.
Under Armour (UA) A true bottom candidate. The stock has been clobbered over slow sales and the death of modern retail. However, if you believe in the brand and Kevin Plank (as I do) you'll find an entry point here at the $11 level, and be patient while the company re-finds its footing and comes back.
General Electric (GE) Hoo-boy. This has been a disaster for the past year. Buy this, close your eyes and come back in 3 years. It might take that long to right this ship. After all, how long does it take to turn an ocean liner? There is so much work to do here, that it might seem overwhelming, and I suppose that there are either (a) investors who do not want to wait (b) investors who need the dividend, and since it was cut, will find other opportunities or (c) investors who don't see the potential and (a) and (b). However, if your time horizon is longer than a year or two, I'd suggest dripping money into this, since the share price will likely be in the $16 to $18 range for a while, and you can build a nice position until the rudder manages to steer the giant ship around its obstacles. The keyword here: Patience.
Advance Auto Parts (AAP). They had a nice quarter, and guided roughly in line, but the share price is down from $178 to $95 over the year-to-date. Is that an opportunity? It says here, it is. The market has overreacted to the "Amazon Effect," in that, they fear that Amazon will do ... well ... everything, including selling auto parts online. Ask yourself: If you're doing a repair, and need a belt, are you going to wait a day or two for Amazon to deliver it, or are you going to go to your local AAP store and get one and finish the job? Sometimes folks, fear takes over rational thought, and you have to be able to find a middle ground. Amazon will not take over everything ... which leads me to this:
The Amazon Effect: People hate Walmart. No doubt. I have lost Facebook "friends" because I defended Walmart. It's true. If you spend any time in the Deep South, you will find out that, if there isn't a Walmart in town, the people have no place to shop. Fact. Around here, when a Walmart is proposed, people picket because we have so many places to shop, we don't think that another Walmart will help. That's the problem.
So, why don't those same people hate Amazon? They might, but there is no place for them to picket. Where are they going to march? In front of their computer? No. They just point and click, and order junk that they get in two days in those smiley boxes. It sure seems better than having Walmart pay property taxes and give people jobs. How many people do you know who work for Amazon? I'll wait.
Meanwhile, the thing they call "Brick and Mortar Retail" is supposedly dying. OK, maybe, but it might be because we have so many shopping centers that it's impossible to cross the street without finding a place to shop. It's called saturation. Sure, stores like Kmart, JC Penny's, and Sears are closing, but think about how many stores from your childhood have closed over the years. It isn't that odd. Stores close. Consumers dictate.
The latest scare is in the consumer drug business. Shares of CVS and Walgreen's (WAG) have struggled because there is speculation that Amazon will go into the retail drug business. OK, maybe they will, but will that replace the relationship that consumers have with their local pharmacy?
I can't see a day when consumers will want to "point and click" on anything without first touching it and trying it on. You might buy a pair of shoes or a jacket online, but that's only because you know ahead of time that it will fit.
Retailers are struggling to find ways to make the shopping experience better, and it says here that they will, because people have been around longer than Amazon. Sure, it's a great convenience to be able to point-and-click, but touching-and-feeling is a great experience, too. The strong will survive.
You betcha. You just have to be able to find the ones who will survive. Go with quality. Quality always wins. Whether it's Under Armour, Apple, L Brands, Estee Lauder, Colgate-Palmolive, Newell Brands, Procter and Gamble, Anheuser-Busch, Hanes Brands, CVS, Trip Advisor, Allergan, Discovery ... the list goes on. As for me, my money (literally) is on Under Armour, only because I believe in the true value aspect, and well ... I love the product.
Will these companies and brands go away, or merely re-invent themselves and keep up with the changing times? I'm guessing that, as you read this, there is a meeting going on somewhere with the management of these companies deciding how they are going to deal with this "new millennium" of consumers and how they will adapt to their changing habits.
Will these companies and brands go away, or merely re-invent themselves and keep up with the changing times? I'm guessing that, as you read this, there is a meeting going on somewhere with the management of these companies deciding how they are going to deal with this "new millennium" of consumers and how they will adapt to their changing habits.
They are trying to figure out how to make us need them more than they need us. That's what great companies do.
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