My Sick Mind

It’s been a while since I have opined on the stock market.  Mostly because I have had other more important things to say.  Nevertheless, I still pay attention, and I think you should, too.   Recently, Morningstar rated 20 stocks as “Undervalued and Sustainable,” which appeals to me because I hate overpaying for things, and want whatever I buy to be around in a decade or so - since I plan on that, too. I went over the list (as you should, too) and found five that appear to be attractive in today's environment, and have some risk involved, with the requisite reward at the end of the supposed rainbow. Mattel (MAT) looks like a disaster now, but t heir capital-allocation program has committed an incremental $250 million-$300 million to business improvements in 2017, potentially helping speed up the profit turnaround. So, if  you  are confident in their ability to turn the existing portfolio into a profitable enterprise, you could find a bargain h...

Eighteen hundred and some-odd posts on this worn-out site.  Sometimes, I think I've covered it all - and other times, I think I haven't covered anything at all.  Or maybe it's both?  So, there's that.  Meanwhile, my fascination with how people connect lingers. There's this story about the Las Vegas lunatic that shot-up a concert.   LAS VEGAS (AP) — The girlfriend of the Las Vegas gunman said Wednesday that she had no inkling of the massacre he was plotting when he sent her on a trip abroad to see her family.    Marilou Danley issued the statement after returning from her native Philippines and being questioned for much of the day by FBI agents still trying to figure out what drove Stephen Paddock to open fire on 22,000 fans at a country music festival from his 32nd-floor hotel suite. "He never said anything to me or took any action that I was aware of that I understood in any way to be a warning that something horrible like this was going to ...

Oh hell - we knew that, right? Aren't we all? Sometimes we think we aren't worthy, even though we know we are flawed. And it makes me wonder ... How some couples get along with being flawed and arguing over things, and others (me) can't make it through one disagreement without separating and parting ways for a lifetime. Perhaps I watch too much TV - or not enough - that I believe couples can argue over things and still exist as a couple.  Or, perhaps I think that couples can form to begin with, which seems to be a problem, so why am I concerned with keeping something together that isn't together to begin with? There is supposed to be a lid for every pot, but I wonder if some pots are English and some lids are metric?  It doesn't seem as simple as the lid/pot analogy makes it out to be.  I'd guess that somehow, the lids and pots that fit each other go undiscovered and their owners go a lifetime without knowing that there was indeed one of them ...

"You have to move on," they say.   That would be easy if there was something to move on to.  The moving part is not the issue.  It's the "on" part that is difficult.  It's not like picking up another book or watching another movie. There's a human element that makes the moving difficult, and the on worse. Once I get my sights set on something, it is difficult to re-focus.  Mostly because there is nothing else to focus on.  Things come one at a time in my world.  I'm not a social animal (quite the contrary) and the sights are few and far between. Now, I find myself staring down the gunsight at the horrible four months from November to February, where the world's focus shifts from the mundane to the holidays.  Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year's, and Valentine's Day - a marketer's dream and a lonely man's dread.  I realize that 95% of America has something to do on most of those days, and I can't begrudge someone ...

As I said in a previous post , I recently returned from 11 days in Alabama.  Now that I have had significant time to reflect on that experience, allow me to share some of my thoughts on the trip and the indelible impression it has left on me. ONE: The more desperate we are, the more we tend to lean on hope. When sentences start with "I hope ..." rational thought takes a back seat to chance and irrational ideals. It's a suckers game, and rarely does hope work for the betterment of those who hope.  Hope goes hand in hand with faith.  It relies too heavily upon someone or something else, and that has no place in the needs and desires that we all have.  If you have hope and faith, you will almost certainly be disappointed.  As it turned out, I cannot depend on hope, because hope relies on someone or something else.  I read that somewhere.  I will leave that between me and the one on whom my hope rested. TWO: Would this be the eventual home i...

At least for now, and the past 5 days.   The problem with people from the north (like me) is that they tend to stereotype people from other areas by whatever we think they are, based on ... accent, body type, or some other pre-conceived notion that lends itself to whatever style we assumed. What generally happens is, we get there, and realize that, other than some accent (it turns out, I have one, too) or some other oddity, they are ... people.  Go figure.  People with jobs, lives, wants, needs, and desires.  No different than the rest of us.  What a culture shock! While I realize two things:  (1) Travelers face different types of people than residents.  I have mainly dealt with service people and wait staff, and (2) I have only been here for 5 days, I still can tell the things that make us the same as people - God forbid.  It's the other things that make me wonder how much better life would be here than in New Jersey. For one thing, the lack of t...

... when all about you are losing theirs, and blaming it on you ... Noted liar and exaggerator (President) Donald J. Trump was at it again today.  In an unhinged and ranting press conference at his digs in New York, he (among other oddities) compared Robert E. Lee to George Washington and Thomas Jefferson, proclaiming that we may be tearing down their statues too, someday.  Well now.  One can only assume that we will never be tearing down a statue of Trump. If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,  But make allowance for their doubting too. In other news, Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) reported horrible earnings today.  The stock has lost half its value in a year, and is a perfect example of a great store and horrible investment.  They cited weakness in hunting and outdoor gear as a reason for the disappointing earnings.  OK, then.  If your margins are that thin, I guess that's the reason investors have suffered. ...

I'm pretty sure I've mentioned Extreme Networks (EXTR) before.  I've been holding this stock for a while, and wondering why it has been down over the past 3 months.  Sometimes, the market doesn't know what's going on, and investors have to trust their instincts a hold onto stocks that they bought because they believed in the company when they made the purchase. In the case of EXTR, I fell in love (bad to do, I know) with the company when I figured out what they did and how if worked-into the way companies are doing business today.  It's a growth industry, and as such, one has to endure a certain amount of doubt from the so-called "investors" when something happens that they find a reason to sell. The stock went from the $11 range down to the $9 range in the relatively short time period of three months, on almost no news - other than the fact that the company was signing-up new businesses and otherwise moving their business forward.  I had to tune-o...

It's earnings season [again] and you know that gives me a stiffy.  Aside from the financial mumbo-jumbo and forecasts of such, there is some interesting stuff going on in the media sector. CBS reported a few days ago.  Mega-Chairman Les Moonves said that they will be forming a streaming channel for sports.  He did not have any details, but said it would be along the lines of what NBC does with their streaming content.  OK, then. Disney reported earlier today.  Bob Iger said that their ESPN branch is going to be streaming content on the Internet, but like Iger, had little in the way of details - price, actual content, or accessibility - but suffice it to say, the idea is to form an Internet-only portal for sports similar to what ESPN does on the cable end.  Oh and, they'll be pulling their content from Netflix (NFLX) in 2019.  So, if you want to see a Disney movie, you'll have to subscribe to their channel. In addition, he suggested that the...

... listen to these lyrics from songs older than you.  Gain some perspective, and stop worshipping celebrities of any age. Gary Puckett and the Union Gap - 1968. "Young Girl" Y oung girl, get out of my mind My love for you is way out of line Better run girl You're much too young girl With all the charms of a woman You've kept the secret of your youth You led me to believe you're old enough To give me love And now it hurts to know the truth Young girl, get out of my mind My love for you is way out of line Better run girl You're much too young girl Beneath your perfume and your make-up You're just a baby in disguise And though you know that it's wrong to be in love with me. w OK, then.  That's one.  How about this Beatles' classic, "I Saw Her Standing There" 1964. Well, she was just 17, You know what I mean, And the way she looked was way...

Without going into a long song and dance , let's look at a few details: Firstly, today the Dow Jones Industrial Average breached the 22,000 mark.  That was enough of an event for them to make up "DOW 22,000" hats and make a big deal out of it on CNBC.  Is it a big deal? Yes and no. It's a big deal if you own shares of Apple, McDonald's, Boeing, and United Health who, combined were responsible for 867 of the move from 21,000 to 22,000.  The Dow is a weighted average, so stocks with higher share prices (like Goldman Sachs, who was responsible for the last 1,000-point surge) have a bigger influence. Conversely, if you were a shareholder of IBM, Goldman (recently) and GE, you were negative 462 points. So, as you can see, the largest companies are responsible for the gain.  All those in the middle (the other 23) were just hanging around. That's a bigger influence than a handful of winners and losers. It's why the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 2000 are be...

We live in a world where all one has to do to be considered a woman is to add breasts and parade around in women's clothing.  That's it.  He's a she, now, and you're a horrible person if you still call him "he," because - well, she wants to be called a woman.  Inside, there are all the man parts, and none of the women parts, but we are forced to do it because "she" wants it that way.  OK then.  That's a degradation of standards. When you lose track of standards, anything passes for ... anything.  That's how the ball starts rolling downhill, and this ball has been rolling downhill for decades.  It didn't start with confusing sexual orientation, and it won't stop there either - but it isn't helped by it, and I chose to lead with it to demonstrate a point, such as it is. We have elected a president who, by some standards, is the "people's choice."  What Lyndon Johnson called "The Silent Majority" was ...

As usual, during earnings season, there is something going on.  This week more than most. On August 1, two of my companies report.  ACCO brands, which makes almost all of the office supplies that you are stealing from work reports.  We are expecting 26 cents.  In the last quarter, they beat expectations and confirmed guidance.  As a result, the stock declined into the last three months.  I am expecting another earnings beat and anticipating the stock improving on its current share price - if not for anything else - just for a sheer value standpoint.  While the world has been watching Facebook, Amazon, Google, et al., hard product companies like ACCO continue to earn money.  Let's see what Tuesday brings. Pfizer also reports on the first. Jim Cramer refers to it as a "bond," since it regularly trades in the $32-per-share area and pays a 3.8% dividend.  That kind of makes it a bond.  Shareholders like me aren't interested in holding...

OK, so you can have your Amazon, Facebook, Netflix, and Google (FANG) and we all have them, if you own an S&P 500 Index fund (which you should), they represent the top holdings and most of the gain you have had over the past 5 years.  That's great, and it's right in your face - or on your computer - whatever.  They're easy to spot.  The virtual low-hanging fruit.  Buy them, don't buy them - the market moves on them, and it's probably just best that we own an index fund and let it run on its own momentum - of which there is plenty. The fun, and to me, the interesting part comes in finding the high-hanging fruit.  The companies that require a little effort and sometimes patience.  One of them is yesterday's Limelight Networks, which is up again today off of yesterday's great quarter.  Another is Mexican casual "fast-food" chain DelTaco Restaurants (TACO) which reported earnings today.  I waited with clenched teeth and sweaty palms, because the c...

When the CEO of a company you are invested in says something like this (below) I couldn't think of a better reason to (a) have tremendous confidence in the company and (b) encourage me to buy more.  Regardless of whether it's a huge conglomerate like Ford or Boeing, or a tiny microcap like Limelight Networks (LLNW) I am thrilled to be in this, and looking forward to watching them grow in 2017 and beyond. As for the numbers: Limelight Networks, Inc. (LLNW) (Limelight), a global leader in digital content delivery, today reported revenue of $45.4 million for the second quarter of 2017, up four percent compared to $43.6 million in the second quarter of 2016, and up one percent compared to $44.7 million in the first quarter of 2017. Currency headwinds negatively impacted year-over-year comparison by $0.3 million, or one percent. Gross margin was 47.1% in the second quarter of 2017, an increase of 390 basis points from 43.2% in the second quarter of 2016.  On a GAAP basis, Limel...

You know the drill.  It's been three months since they last reported, and God forbid we go more than twelve weeks without having our opinions changed about companies that we liked at one point - or hated - whatever.  Twelve weeks isn't long enough to age wine, let alone figure out what's going on in the high-end world of finances, but it's here, so we deal with it. Alphabet (nee Google) reported after the close tonight.  The numbers looked pretty good to me.  They beat on the top and bottom line, increased hits and decreased the costs - but Mister Market saw fit to drop the hammer on them after hours.  That tells me that you might get a bargain if you're a buyer.  Wait for the legendary three-day period before jumping in.  It takes a long time to unload a $900 a share stock.  Let it settle-in. Otherwise, yes I eat my own cooking. Last week, I picked-up shares of Square (SQ) at $26.  I suspect it hasn't run its course yet, and there i...

If you believe that the market is fairly or over-valued, it presents a challenge to find companies whose stock prices are not inflated beyond the measurements that the stock market places on them:  Price-to-earnings (P/E) and all of those rational multiples that  stock prices are supposed to be based on. Ask a Tesla (TSLA) investor which rational measurements he is investing in, and he won't have an answer for you.  The stock is overvalued on every aspect.  You invest because you believe, and sometimes, you have to throw value out of the window. I sold Micron (MU) at $29.50 because I had some profits and didn't trust the semiconductor industry. (By the way, I lose faith in companies the same way I lose faith in old cars.  Once I lose confidence, they have to go, regardless.  And, as Jim Cramer says, "Nobody ever lost money taking a profit.") Oh, and for the record (if there is one) I sold Snap (SNAP) at my buy price.  Once it ran up into t...

"I'll see you soon. You be good." That's what I said to Thor every day when I left the flat to go to work.  I would, and he would.  We kept our promises.  That's how friendships work. I have written about him here before.  (you could look it up) Our relationship was forged from the first day we saw each other.  He in a cage at the PetsMart and me looking for a new companion.  Every other cat had a placard with an explanation of how they wound up there:  My owner was allergic.  I moved to a place that doesn't allow cats. He doesn't get along with my children. Etcetera. Thor.   Just the placard with his name and age, "Between 1 and 2 years."  "How did he get here?" I asked.  Nobody at the store knew.  Somehow, he appeared - as if to wait for me?  When I took him out of the cage, he placed a paw on my cheek. The shelter women were aghast.  "He never does that with anybody !" "OK then, I guess this is my c...

Unless you've been asleep in a cave, you heard that Amazon (AMZN) bought Whole Foods Markets (WFM) in a deal valued at $42 a share to Whole Foods shareholders, and $13.7 billion to Amazon.  It sent waves of concern through the stock market today, as investors of retailers everywhere started looking under their skirts for a sign that something might be creeping up on them. All of those names you see above had their stocks hammered or at the very least, bitten into over this deal.  So, what's going on?  Are we headed toward a one-retailer world, or is this just yet another over-reaction to a short-term stimulus?  Or both? One strange thing that happened is that Amazon's stock went up after the deal was announced, to a degree that equated to almost getting the Whole Foods property for free.  That's odd, especially since the deal was funded from debt.  Somehow, Amazon shareholders didn't care about that.  So, we'll wait for that other shoe ...